Tense Observations

My thoughts earlier today:

Ask yourself not: what does this mean now; rather, ask yourself: what does this mean for tomorrow? If people think Russia is bad now, they need to ask themselves what Russia is going to look like if things don’t go well in the next 6 months?

Odd, how quickly folks went from submersible experts to Russian experts, once again (yes, that was dripping with vicious and bitter sarcasm).

I have written several times on this blog about my perspectives on Russian history, current challenges, and the reaction of the West to all of the above… several times:

Dulce et Decorum 9Nov2022

Why is the US media so anti-Russian? 26Apr2018

Post-Soviet Russian Diplomacy and the Western Media 4Sep2017

The Viability of Tanks and the (Forced) Evolution of Doctrine 25Mar2022

The Looming U 26Feb2022

Two Sides of Pyrrhic 7Feb2022

Compiling Thoughts 5Feb2022

“Nowhere Further to Retreat” 21Dec21

World War 01011001 21May2020

Thoughts on Article 5 3Nov2019

Red Scare… Version 3.0 23Oct2019

Power, Politics, and Poker 20Oct2019

Most Likely / Most Dangerous 4Sep2019

War and Violence: Lessons for Tomorrow 5Jun2019

The Biggest Tragedy of World War One 24Nov2018

The Next Big Conflict… 4Sep2018

The Crimean War, the American Civil War… Clausewitz, Jomini, and Mahan 12Aug2017

“ATTENTION MOSCOW!” The Battle of Moscow, 1941 10Jan2017

Let me be clear: none of what I have written before today, nothing I write today, and nothing I will write in the future makes me anything of an expert on Russian history, politics, culture, or potential. I write to get these ideas down for future reference and, perhaps, to remind people “I fucking said that back in ­__!”

What I haven’t written about are my predictions for what the current state of affairs – all speculative at this moment: a possible rogue private military group (Wagner) who may have turned on the leadership in Moscow and are moving to consolidate personnel in cities NOT part of the front in Ukraine (Rostov-On-Don as of this morning… and moving northward).

Simplified?

Nothing good will come of this AT ALL… not today, not tomorrow, and not for the next few years.

I see one of two solid outcomes, barring any direct foreign involvement:

1. Russia defeats an attempted coup…
2. Russia is defeated in a coup…

If either of those outcomes brings joy in any sense to the reader, I have no idea what in the hell you are doing here and what in the hell to tell you. The former will result in accusations of Western influence and an escalation of rhetoric and animosity between Russia and the West; the latter is… well, it’s just a fuckin’ nightmare on several fronts – specifically, that that means for the nuclear stockpile maintained by Russia and the frantic claims by many Western leaders for credit or assistance.

Don’t believe me?

Go look up who Wagner has appealed to… who has chosen to fight for them… Do you really want that to fill the power vacuum that would be the current Russian leadership?

Myself, I hope neither of those options comes to light. I am actually rooting for a 3^rd possible outcome: aliens show up and force us all to stop this nonsense through either peace or the existential threat to life on Earth.

I weighed in on the following question:

“Do kids of the Cold War, like myself, view what is going on in Russia differently than the rest of the generations?”

More than likely. I cannot speak for the subsequent generations, but I have seen all of this as firmly in the “definitely NOT good” category. The problem is that many will believe what they are told without an understanding of causality and history.

And while this is not a case of history repeating, there are a lot of indications that, when change happens in Russia, it has been brutal and with lasting second-, third-, and so on orders of effect.

We are watching the chaos of history which will only start to be sorted years later, at the earliest. Perhaps this is something like 1905 Russia… More than likely, this will be something so unlike anything history has ever seen.

“What happens if?” is a question I really hope remains in the realm of speculation. Back in 2013, my wife asked if I would ever consider the idea of moving to Russia.

My answer was quick: “Not really… the weather would be a problem, but let me ask you this: Putin is old… What happens when he is no longer viable for leadership in Russia?”

All sorts of scenarios probably flashed through her mind. “Shit. Nevermind.”

As I have stated many times before: I do not like Putin… but I can respect the role he has played in contemporary Russian history – even if I dislike some of that as well. However, his position is more of a “the Devil you know” aspect in relation to the Devil we don’t know. After all, prior to 1999, did many folks in the West know who he was and how limited Yeltsin’s time was?

Who comes after Putin? Russian history does not provide reassuring examples when those with guns challenge those with the idea of law behind them. I am still working through Wrangle’s Always With Honor, and that should be a fairly good indication how regime change has worked before.

We shall see, though… and this is something becoming more pressing as Hard Questions as a Vet and Parent from 12Nov18 is now becoming more of a reality as my son is actively seeking to enlist in the Marines.

[deep breath]

I shall entrench in my vicious optimism…

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